Investment bank Merrill Lynch believes America is already in a recession, and analyst Irwin Stelzer, who was cool on one last week, today writes in much more pessimistic mood in the UK Sunday Times.

There’s an analysis over at Syntagma on the forthcoming recession : Boxing Day blues as world teeters on brink :

“In retrospect it’s now clear that Alan Greenspan left rates too low for too long and spawned the mad rush to lend to the sub-prime market (Ninja mortgages : no income, no job, no assets). But on top of that, it is also now normal to be permanently in debt and to service it by moving it continuously between lenders engaged in a bitter battle for market share and a bigger slice of the easy action. These lenders are no longer willing to cough up, even if they were in a position to do so.”

You can also read, Is another dotcom crash underway? :

“Businesses that can live on short rations may ride this out through belt-tightening measures. Anyone with debt that needs to be renewed periodically will find their position precarious.”

The bottom line is that a recession in the U.S. will inevitably lead to one in Europe, and an even bigger one in Britain, which shares America’s current weaknesses but even more acutely.